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by Shivam Machama (Senior Analyst) and Francois Bidwai (Ichimoku Specialist)
At the beginning of European trade session the Dollar as before take a defensive position after Dollar sell in New York against background of unfavourable financial data and unclear further perspective of such companies like Amex, Apple and Texas Instruments. In Asian market Euro/Dollar was a little strengthened above New York highs at $1,5930 to $1,5938. As the currency pair keeps position at $1,5925, a setback attracts Dollar-buyers on the market. Dealers note that below $1,5900 they see strong interest on buy in EURUSD. As for the Dollar against the Japanese Yen, in Asia the Greenback was sold at every moving up. As a result the American currency hit the low at Y106,32, but a support recovered the Dollar.
EUR/USD: The fact, that the currency pair formed the bottom at $1,5800 and closed yesterday above $1,5900, can be a necessary stimulus for repeated test of the level of the historical high at $1,6020/40.
Strategy: Open small long positions on fall to the level to $1,5900, adding positions till $1,5835. Stop below $1,5750. Close long positions in the range between $1,5950 and $1,6020, resuming buys on the case of week close above $1,6025 or sure break above $1,6050 with a target at $1,6100 and then at $1,6250.
USD/JPY: Yesterday the currency pair stopped approaching to Y107,50 and now falls in direction to 106.00, as we expected. Today expect careful movement below Y107,00. Falls are probably limited to the upper line of Ichimoku clouds at 106,00. But during this week the Greenback possibly continues dropping. Only a week close below Y105,50 signals that intermediate peak is formed.
Strategy: Sell at Y106,50/106,75. Stop above Y107,20. Short-term target is at 106,00, then 105,00.
GBPUSD: The British Pound moved up from the level at $1,9900 and was closed above $2,0000. It can create conditions for next “short grip” to the end of this week. When the British currency begins surely trading above $2,0100, the risk of next weakening will be decreased.
Strategy: Buy at the level at $2,0010, adding positions till $1,9925. Stop below $1,9800. Short-term target is at $2,0100 and the next one is at $2,0200.
Economic Calendar
Time(CET) Location Indicator Period Unit Forecast Previous Actual
22-Jul-08
*** - very important; ** - important; * - less important
**08:15 Switzerland
Trade Balance June Mln 1874.1 2412.8
***10:45 United Kingdom
BoE Governor speaks
*14:10 United States
Treasury Secretary Paulson Speaks
***14:30 Canada
Retail Sales Ex Autos May % 0.8 1.1
***14:30 Canada
Retail Sales May % 0.6 0.6
*14:55 United States
Redbook mm w/e % 1.2
*14:55 United States
Redbook yy w/e % 2.7
*16:00 United States
Richmond Fed Index July% -12
During the news the market may heavily and unexpectedly move, depending on results of publications and statements. So we recomend all traders to set alarm for risk management and minimalization of losses before the news. 
Today's Market View - USD -
07-22-2008
Linear Mode
